It may appear ambitious, but a diplomatic partnership with India in the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament agenda is of strategic importance for Australia, writes Kurt Winter.
The nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament agenda is back. In May 2010, world leaders will come together to negotiate the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Indeed, Australia and nations-alike have been working toward the goals of non-proliferation and disarmament for years without avail. So, the critical question is how can this very important agenda be revitalised.
In awarding – not without controversy – the Nobel Peace Prize to President Obama, the Norwegian Nobel Committee attached “special importance to Obama's vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons”. Australia too has sought to play a key role in nuclear diplomacy. Continuing his commitment to the re-emerging discourse of middle power diplomacy, Prime Minister Rudd established the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, a joint initiative with Japan, aimed at reinvigorating the NPT and engaging countries outside the NPT.
In order to make significant progress, however, Australia also needs to invest in regular “first track” or government-to-government diplomacy. In this vein, Australia should consider forging a strategic partnership with one of the most important players in the debate - India.
Negotiating with India is of critical importance to a comprehensive solution. Because India exploded nuclear devices in 1974 and 1998, it does not qualify as a nuclear weapons state under the NPT. The NPT created a system of nuclear “haves” and “have-nots”, defining a nuclear weapons state as one “which manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive devise prior to 1 January 1967”. Former Australian diplomat, Rory Medcalf aptly describes the problematic “grand bargain” as a commitment on the part of the then nuclear powers that “if you don’t start smoking, I’ll quit”.
On face value India appears an unlikely partner given its development of a nuclear deterrent outside the NPT. On closer analysis, however, India has similar aspirations to Australia regarding disarmament and non-proliferation. At the recent United Nations General Assembly debate in October, India set nuclear disarmament as the highest priority and argued that non-proliferation objectives should be achieved through a concerted international effort.
A diplomatic partnership between Australia and India would also be of intrinsic value in a bilateral sense. As India’s place in the world has changed, both economically and politically, India has become increasingly important in Australia’s foreign policy calculation.
Australia has already benefited greatly from India’s economic growth, with India ranking as Australia’s sixth largest export market, as well as steady growth in imports from India. The joint feasibility study on the merits of a free trade agreement, due for release this year, is further evidence of a deepening economic relationship.
Politically, the long list of common interests includes ensuring a stable balance of power in Asia, combating small arms and narcotics trade and protecting sea lanes for energy and trade in the Indian Ocean, stabilizing Afghanistan and Pakistan and coordinating responses to natural disasters, terrorism and climate change.
Nevertheless, transforming Australia’s relationship with India hinges on Australia’s uranium export policy. As Medcalf explains, on the one hand, “it has the potential to poison the relationship” and on the other hand “it has the potential to take the relationship to a new level”. India’s strategic outlook is focused on securing uranium for energy use. Given that Australia possesses the largest known reserves of uranium, selling uranium to India could transform the relationship into an indispensable partnership.
The difficult question is under what conditions Australia might pursue such a deal. In August 2007, following the watershed US-India agreement to supply India with uranium, the Howard Government announced its ‘in principle’ decision to export uranium to India “subject to very stringent safeguards and conditions”. Former US State Department senior scientist, Peter Zimmerman, condemned the decision arguing that it would undermine the integrity of the NPT. Subsequently, the Rudd government overturned the decision, insisting that Australia would not sell uranium to India.
Australia should pursue a more nuanced diplomatic path. The promise of uranium sales to India should be used as a bargaining chip to transform the relationship into a strategic partnership capable of spearheading progress in reforming the global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime.
Though difficult, such an initiative will serve Australia’s long-term national interest. As Ron Walker of the Australian National University argues, the global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime “continues to erect significant obstacles to would-be proliferators” and in Australia’s experience, it prevents the nightmare scenario of a regional nuclear arms race. Walker also makes the point that, in light of Australia’s geostrategic weight, Australia has “a vested interest in a norm-based international system built on the equality of states and in uniformly applied rules”.
The present discriminatory system cannot be sustained. Through a partnership with India, Australia has an opportunity to lead this vital reform agenda. First and foremost, as Medcalf argues, Australia should recognize nuclear security “as a priority national security issue”, that is the whole nuclear arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament agenda, including its interaction with nuclear energy.
Australia should then invest significant diplomatic capital into transforming the relationship with India into a fruitful partnership. Given Australia’s key role in establishment of the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime, Australia has both the interest and credentials to pursue such an ambitious strategy.
Kurt Winter is a Policy Offer at Left Right Think-Tank, Australia’s first independent and non-partisan think-tank of young minds.
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